Everyone has an opinion about the market right now. I wanted numbers. So I pulled every residential sale that closed in Edinburg, McAllen, Mission, and Alton between April 20 and October 16, 2026. That is 1,163 closed sales, plus the 1,602 homes still for sale and 238 under contract.
Then I asked the questions buyers and sellers ask me every week. Where are homes moving fastest? How much below list can a buyer offer? Will a seller have to pay closing costs? When should you counter, and when should you take the deal? Here is what the data says, from both sides of the table.
Key Takeaways
- The typical home sold for $280,000: about $156 per square foot, after a median of 51 days on the market.
- Sellers are paying closing costs: 64% of sales included a seller concession, with a typical amount of about $8,300.
- Price matters more than city: homes under $200,000 have about 5 months of supply, while homes over $400,000 have almost 15.
- The first 30 days decide the outcome: homes that sold within a month got 100% of their original price. Homes that sat 180+ days got 91%.
- Price cuts cost real money: 36% of sold homes had a price cut. Those sellers ended up with about 93% of their original price.
What is the Hidalgo County housing market like right now?
Hidalgo County is a buyer's market overall, but not in every price range. Across Edinburg, McAllen, Mission, and Alton there are about 8 months of inventory. Anything over 6 months favors buyers. Homes still sell close to list price (98.9% at the median), but most sellers help with the buyer's closing costs to get there.
Prices have been flat. The median price per square foot moved between $152 and $159 every month from April to October. Nothing is crashing, and nothing is taking off. That helps both sides. The sales from the last six months are a fair guide to what a home is worth today.
The four cities, side by side
Edinburg had the most sales (480) and the tightest supply of the big three cities at 6.9 months. Homes there sold at 99.5% of list price, the highest of the three. A lot of that is new construction.
McAllen sold the fastest, at a median of 44 days. It also had the highest median price at $300,000 and the lowest share of seller concessions (57%). McAllen buyers had more cash and conventional loans, and sellers gave up less.
Mission had the most supply at 8.9 months and the longest median time on market of the three, at 60 days. It also had the lowest price per square foot at $145. For buyers, that makes Mission the best value per square foot in this group.
Alton is small (43 sales), so read it with care. Homes there sold at full list price, but 86% of sellers paid concessions and supply sits at 12 months.
The hottest areas: where homes moved fastest
City averages hide the real story. The hottest part of this market is a price range, not a zip code.
Homes under $200,000 are the only range under 6 months of supply. They sold in a median of 38 days, and only about half included a seller concession. In Edinburg, homes under $200,000 had just 4.3 months of supply, and the $250,000 to $300,000 range had 5.3. Those are the two tightest pockets in the county.
At the other end, homes over $400,000 have almost 15 months of supply. In Mission, it is closer to 17. That is a lot of choice for move-up buyers, and a lot of competition for sellers.
Among subdivisions with at least four sales, these moved fastest:
| Subdivision | City | Sales | Median days on market | Median price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evergreen Valley Estates | Edinburg | 4 | 15 | $413,750 |
| The Heights on Trenton Ph II | Edinburg | 6 | 18 | $264,000 |
| Gardenia Terrace | McAllen | 5 | 19 | $239,000 |
| Sonoma Ranch Ph 1 | Mission | 4 | 20 | $324,500 |
| Plantation Gap | McAllen | 4 | 21 | $217,500 |
| La Floresta Ph 1 | McAllen | 4 | 26 | $310,000 |
| Rosewood Estates | McAllen | 10 | 38 | $436,000 |
A small number of sales can swing these, so treat the list as a starting point, not a ranking. Rosewood Estates stands out because it had 10 sales and still sold at full original list price.
What a buyer wants to know
If you are buying, three numbers matter most.
1. How much help with closing costs is normal? Most of it. 64% of sales included a seller concession, with a typical amount of about $8,300. That works out to roughly 3% of the price. FHA and VA buyers got help most often.
2. How far below list can I offer? It depends on how long the home has been listed. Homes that sold within 30 days went for full list price. After 90 days, sellers took about 95% of the original price. After 180 days, about 91%. Cash buyers did best of all, closing at a median of about 95% of list price.
3. New build or resale? New construction (built 2024 or later) sold for a median of $294,500 at about $181 per square foot. Resale homes sold for $267,000 at about $142 per square foot, and they were about 300 square feet bigger. Builders gave concessions on 79% of their sales, typically $9,000. Resale sellers did on 58%.
What a buyer can get away with right now
- Asking for closing costs. On FHA and VA loans, about 85% of sales included seller help. Asking is normal, not aggressive.
- Offering under list on stale listings. On homes that have been listed 60 days or more, an offer a few percent under list is backed by the data.
- Negotiating repairs. With 8 months of supply, most sellers have competition and know it.
What a buyer cannot get away with: lowballing a fresh listing in a tight range. Homes under $200,000 and well-priced homes in their first two weeks still sold at full price. Low offers there just lose the house.
What a seller wants to know
If you are selling, the most important chart in this post is this one.
Homes that sold in their first 30 days got 100% of their original list price. After seller concessions, those sellers kept about 97%. Homes that sat more than 180 days sold for about 91% of the original price, and those sellers kept about 89% after concessions.
On a $300,000 home, that gap is roughly $24,000. That is the real cost of starting too high.
The price cut numbers say the same thing. 36% of sold homes had at least one price reduction. Homes with no cut sold in a median of 32 days at about 99.5% of the original price. Homes with a cut took 109 days and sold for about 93%.
Pricing right the first time is the best move a seller can make in this market. A high list price does not leave room to negotiate. It buys you three extra months and a lower final number.
What a seller can get away with right now
- Holding firm on a well-priced home. Well-priced homes still sold at or near list. If your price is backed by recent sales, you do not have to accept the first lowball.
- Trading concessions for price. About 17% of homes sold over list price, and most of those (168 of 200) included a seller concession. The typical deal was about $5,000 over list with about $9,000 back to the buyer. A buyer who needs help with cash to close will often pay more to get it.
- Saying no to cash discounts on fresh listings. Cash buyers usually want about 5% off. That makes sense on a stale listing, not on day five.
What a seller cannot get away with: pricing above the recent sales. Over $400,000, buyers have 15 months of options, and they skip overpriced homes.
How to use this data when making or answering an offer
Here is how I use these numbers with clients.
If you are making an offer:
- Check days on market. Under 30 days, offer close to list. Over 90 days, you have room.
- Check the price range. Under $200,000, expect competition. Over $400,000, expect flexibility.
- Decide whether you need cash at closing or a lower price. You can usually get one, not both.
- Compare price per square foot with recent sales in the same subdivision, not the whole city.
If you are answering an offer:
- Look at your net, not the price. A $5,000 higher price with a $9,000 concession nets you less than a clean offer.
- Count your days. If you are past 60 days, the data says the next offer is likely lower, not higher.
- Counter on terms before price. Closing date, repairs, and concession amount often close the gap.
- Accept when the offer matches the recent sales. Each extra month or two on the market cost sellers about 1 to 2 points of their original price.
Why the agent you pick matters in this market
Anyone can look up a list price. The difference is knowing what the sales say about this home, in this price range, right now. I have a math degree and teach high school math, and I run these numbers myself for every client.
For buyers, that means knowing when to push and when a fair offer will lose the house. For sellers, it means a list price backed by recent sales. That is how you sell in the first 30 days instead of cutting the price in month four. Whoever you hire, ask them for the days on market, sale-to-list ratio, and concession rate for your price range. If they cannot answer, keep looking.
Ready to look? Browse homes for sale in Edinburg, McAllen, or Mission. Thinking about selling? Read how seller concessions work as a strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Hidalgo County a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?
Mostly a buyer's market. Edinburg, McAllen, Mission, and Alton have about 8 months of inventory combined. The exception is homes under $200,000, which have about 5 months of supply and sell in a median of 38 days.
How much below asking price do homes sell in McAllen, Edinburg, and Mission?
The median home sold at 98.9% of its final list price and 97.3% of its original list price. Homes that sat more than 90 days sold for about 95% of the original price or less. Cash buyers closed at about 95% of list.
Do sellers pay closing costs in the Rio Grande Valley?
Usually, yes. 64% of recent sales included a seller concession, typically about $8,300. On FHA and VA loans, about 85% of sales included one.
How long does it take to sell a house in Hidalgo County?
The median was 51 days on the market. McAllen was fastest at 44 days, Edinburg 55, and Mission 60. Homes priced right from the start often sold within 30 days.
Should I list my house high and leave room to negotiate?
The data says no. Homes that had a price cut took a median of 109 days to sell and got about 93% of their original price. Homes priced right from the start sold in about 32 days at full price.
Want this analysis for your own street or price range? Call or text 956-476-2925 and I will pull the sales that matter for your home or your search.
Data: 1,163 residential sales in Edinburg, McAllen, Mission, and Alton that closed April 20 to October 16, 2026, plus 1,602 active and 238 under-contract listings, from the local MLS. Medians shown. Months of inventory is active listings divided by the average monthly sales pace.